probability of shooting civil war starting?
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Date: October 28th, 2020 1:00 AM
Author: Hegemon
First, the kind of civil war that could break out at all looks like factional guerilla conflict. The urban/rural divide is here analogous to the north/south divide, meaning partition is impossible.Second, if Biden wins, within 10 years. The wholescale attempts to disenfranchise the right (court pack, electoral college change, DC & Puerto Rico statehood, gun grab) will leave most with little choice but submission or violence, and a significant number will choose violence. If Trump wins, I anticipate it being forestalled awhile, though not permanently. If it is tied or contested, there will absolutely be leftist rioting in the streets, police will be neutered, and that's the best chance for violence to start.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4664186&forum_id=2#41203278) |
Date: October 28th, 2020 3:03 AM
Author: ..,..,,,,,...,...,..,,..,,,,.,,.,,...,,..,,.,.,.,,
the real right wing doesn't have any institutional power, so zero
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4664186&forum_id=2#41203617) |
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Date: October 28th, 2020 3:06 AM
Author: ..,..,,,,,...,...,..,,..,,,,.,,.,,...,,..,,.,.,.,,
what organizational power structure represents the "racists" in this scenario?
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4664186&forum_id=2#41203622) |
Date: October 28th, 2020 7:51 AM
Author: ,.,..,.,..,.,.,.,..,.,.,,..,..,.,,..,.,,.
probably quite low, since the elites (the people who actually run things) are not very divided at all, let alone over 'normie' partisan politics. anything organized like a civil war is always about leadership, coordination, and logistics, and you're not going to get far with any of that stuff without elite support.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4664186&forum_id=2#41203936) |
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Date: October 28th, 2020 8:27 AM
Author: Daytona Beach 1986
CRCivil wars are about fighting for control of state violence. This power is not in the least bit contested in the US Libs will just steamroll all institutions and pick off lone Kenosha Kyles along the way
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4664186&forum_id=2#41204004) |
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Date: October 28th, 2020 8:33 AM
Author: ,.,..,.,..,.,.,.,..,.,.,,..,..,.,,..,.,,.
the other thing that people forget is that you can put substantial stress even on a weak state and not get very far without a larger plan, a secure base of operations, powerful patrons, etc. part of the reason that venezuela's rebel groups have gone nowhere against a fairly weak tin-pot government is that they just don't have good sponsors, and they don't grow enough drugs to sustain themselves with exports. so they are fragmented, and even a weak state can swat them down.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4664186&forum_id=2#41204028) |
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Date: October 28th, 2020 3:27 PM
Author: ,,,..,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,,,..,,..,,
JFK... I retyped this almost verbatim below. I had not read your post, but this is TCR
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4664186&forum_id=2#41206722) |
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Date: October 28th, 2020 5:15 PM
Author: ,,,..,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,,,..,,..,,
When the peasants were taking to the highlands behind a charismatic leader, did the King typically have the ability to instantly find them with satellite, heat imaging and electronic signature surveillance and incinerate them from a drone piloted by a man 500 miles away?When the patriots were scheming in Boston, Philly and New York, did the Royal Governor have the ability to instantly access all communications among the conspirators going back decades? And the ability to instantly strip them of all money? And the ability to instantly cut them all from all communication? There is too great a gulf between governmental ability to organize, communicate and supply, and government vs. civilian warmaking technology and normal people ability to do the same for this to ever happen now. Go ask President Maduro (support for him leaving reached 85%, and the shooting lasted about 10 days).
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4664186&forum_id=2#41207626)
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Date: October 28th, 2020 5:38 PM
Author: Hegemon
I am fully cognizant of the technological differences; I'm also aware of the last several guerilla conflicts the US has tried to deal with, and they were all in radically worse starting positions than a US insurgency would be.I also think you consider the military/national security apparatus to be a monolith; they're not. There would be substantial defection to an insurgency, especially under the government that would provoke these circumstances. I agree that things are very different now, but I don't think that the increased technological capabilities change the nature of warfare and counterinsurgency as fundamentally as you seem to believe -- even if JSOC task forces were cut loose on U.S. soil the way they were in Iraq in 04-08, they still have to find and fix, even if the finish is the easy part. What's more, there are plenty of ex-SOF guys that would quickly jump on the insurgency side of things. The might of the U.S. military and intelligence apparatus is tremendous, but the Taliban in Afghanistan were impossible for us to wipe out and they had around 10,000 men, only 2,000-3,000 of which were full-time professionals. If 1% of Trump voters would be moved to violence, that's 620,000 people. That's a counterinsurgency nightmare, even in a land and culture you already know and can freely move troops through. There comes a point at which numbers of angry men matter more than the technological disparity. I think we're going to reach that point in the next 10 years if Dems solidify power. There will be a significant number of people who believe their political voice has been fully stripped from them and their way of life is being destroyed -- and they have guns.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4664186&forum_id=2#41207832) |
Date: October 28th, 2020 8:34 AM
Author: ,,,....,,,,,,,;';',,,,,,.,.,,;;.,,,
White people are too old and fat and niggers already riot and loot stores at the drop of a dime and the system lets them do it and go completely unpunished as a cost of doing business so who exactly is fighting what?
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4664186&forum_id=2#41204029) |
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Date: October 28th, 2020 8:40 AM
Author: Daytona Beach 1986
It’s all entirely fantasy.The only hypo I could imagine would be a charismatic military leader who rises through the ranks, becomes something of a pundit while still in the service, and rides the wave of some extremely unpopular govt action to rally the military behind him, disobeying the president and Congress. Then you’d have an actual threat.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4664186&forum_id=2#41204052) |
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Date: October 28th, 2020 8:45 AM
Author: ,,,....,,,,,,,;';',,,,,,.,.,,;;.,,,
Have you seen ARE military? It's a bunch of Guatemalans and Mexicans with guns. The officers are still white (for 10 more minutes) but the enlisted men are all minorities in it for the papers or the money. The white officer class aint rallying shit from among the enlisted demographic. Its a question of time before the enlisted demo shoots the officers if the officer demo doesnt change (and it will).
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4664186&forum_id=2#41204067) |
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Date: October 28th, 2020 3:10 PM
Author: Daytona Beach 1986
It looks more like this:workplace white-led corporations brown from the bottom up and top down. Majority of the new hire grunts are brown, and corp boards start to be populated with AA brown picks. White middle management gets squeezed from both sides. politics AOC wannabes knock off all remaining white male dems in blue districts. Hispanics start to fill up white gop states and arent taking over politician spots yet, but will creep in that direction families mixed white-hispanic families increase rapidly and their offspring continue to form families with whites Whites arent sent off "to oblivion", they just mix and mix and mix and
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4664186&forum_id=2#41206594) |
Date: October 28th, 2020 3:26 PM
Author: ,,,..,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,,,..,,..,,
Zero.Civil wars aren't about 2 sets of people rootin tootin mad at each other. They're about 2 sets of elites vying for the reigns of the state and "legitimate" use of violence. There is no elite throwing his hat in with the Proud Boys and militia types. Nor should they be. Look at the GOP. They're all fat, old and rich white boys with too much to lose. The governor of a red state isn't going to let their cities be ruled by a "rebel" in fact or name. That would last even less time than the Pacific Northwest LARPing. Guard would be called in. Real military if that didn't work. Before the actual civil war there were fist fights in the Senate cloakroom and on the house floor. Senators and governors in the south commissioned their family and friends to lead the armies in case things went south. Elites were willing to fight and die for the cause. Not even close to the case now. What you could see, and I think this is still far fetched, is vigilante skirmishes between militia types and antifa and black militant types. A 20 v 20 Kyle rittenhouse shitshow. You'd need a catalyst to even get there. Tough to even say what that might be. Maybe if (1) Biden and Dems win Senate, don't pack the court, but a foaming at the mouth Maddow watcher who has been fed propoganda since birth and sees himself as a savior assassinates two sitting Justices or (2) Trump wins a very close election on the back of SCOTUS rulings? Something like that could bring cause people to get a few guns out. The next real civil war will occur only after the dollar collapses. The strong dollar and its reserve status keeps everyone too fat and happy now. When that goes away, when scarcity appears, whether in 3 years or 300, it will be ugly.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4664186&forum_id=2#41206709) |
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Date: October 28th, 2020 3:33 PM
Author: self care tp
I generally agree with you, except I don't think the vigilante skirmish scenario is 'far-fetched' at all.In fact, it's happening now, albeit in small numbers. I do think that a lot of the tension goes away post-COVID.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4664186&forum_id=2#41206756) |
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Date: October 28th, 2020 3:33 PM
Author: Muscadine wine (R., S.C.)
Agreed. There is 0 real power on the right, hence why anyone fighting lefties gets prosecuted where any real prosecution of left-wing combatants is rare.There is nothing that resembles an organization on the right while the left is, basically, fully mobile. That's great that right wing voters with good jobs and an AR-15 think they are tough, but when you even as much as waive one at a violent mob, you're getting arrested and your career is over (while nothing happens to the mob). Anyone who thinks that a civil war is possible without some sort of organization and legal power is kidding themselves.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4664186&forum_id=2#41206765) |
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Date: October 28th, 2020 6:20 PM
Author: Whisper of the heart
This. It’s like being labeled a heretic, apostate, infidel, witch, etc. by a religious cult member.Simply: you and people like you have low social status!!! Which is usually enough to send people cowering in fear and submission. If the terms racist or white supremacist ever meant something in good faith, they certainly don’t anymore: In 2020 AD they simply mean “anyone deemed a threat to liberal/Marxist/globalist political and cultural influence.”
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4664186&forum_id=2#41208097) |
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Date: October 28th, 2020 4:57 PM
Author: ,,,..,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,,,..,,..,,
So the argument is that a small group of white mechanics and fat balding lawyers with civilian small arms widely dispersed over a large number of states is going to wage a war?Without their cell phones (to the extent elites leave them on, it's only so the drones know where to go), any access to money or supply lines, any levers of strength or power within the government (maybe a few rural sheriffs?), any ability to communicate and no organization or means to organize? Blue and red politicians, corporations, tech, and almost all normal people (none of whom care about politics like a twitter blue hair or a xoxo mouthbreather) would be against them? As would police and military (who have tech and weaponry even the most paranoid prep LARPers don't and they have it in numbers). These civil warriors are going to what? Take to the highlands? Live off the land? Any that tried would be a governor or president's good graces away from drone incineration. You're thinking about Elite as blue checkmarks on twitter. Those are not actual elites. I mean the political, military, corporate, financial, LEO/judges and tech elites. The ones who would decide who get weapons, who can still communicate with each other, which areas get supplied with food, which people's credit cards no longer work, whose bank accounts are forfeit, whose phones and internet are disconnected. That's the upper-mid-level and above cogs in the institutions. A right wing insurrection would have no such institutional support. The long march through the institutions is already complete. In reality, the institutions would band together against it. Which side do you think Ted Cruz throws down for? You're living a fantasy.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4664186&forum_id=2#41207505) |
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Date: October 28th, 2020 6:00 PM
Author: The Headless Horseman (🎃)
muh 'INTSTITUTIONS'! MUH ELITES!this is the laughable apotheosis of the xo mindset -- of credentialism/'prestige'/US News College Ranking worship. lol @ how awed you are by the pseudo-'elite' and the illusion of its (eternally enduring) power. THE MARCH THRU THE GRADUATE SCHOOLS HAS ALREADY HAPPENED! GAME OVER! 'institutional' authority is hanging by a thread. the lying (((media))), the soon-to-be 19-person sham supreme court, local police forces which stand by as cities/suburbs are razed, risible 'CRT'-propounding corporations, etc. we have become a Banana Republic whose state religion is persecuting White Peopeh. we are about 5 years away from ppl disregarding it all entirely.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4664186&forum_id=2#41207967) |
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Date: October 28th, 2020 6:20 PM
Author: '"'""'"''"
Yeah, but what you don't get is that if even 1% of people do, that's 3.2m people.This is why democracy has to work and not get to where we are today. Generally, you tell losers in an election "chill out, this shit doesn't matter, the pendulum will swing back in 4-8 years." This year there's rioting, talk of gun confiscation, packing courts, banning "hate speech" (read: conservative speech), adding states, getting rid of the EC, etc. We already had a move to mail-in voting because of bullshit COVID BS. At some point the libs win but a bunch of conservatives don't feel it is legit OR that they can expect their turn again. So they resort to violence instead.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4664186&forum_id=2#41208101) |
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Date: October 28th, 2020 7:18 PM
Author: ,.,...,..,.,.,;:,.:,.,.,::,..,..,:,.,.:.:.,:.::,.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4664186&forum_id=2#41208485) |
Date: October 28th, 2020 6:27 PM
Author: ,,,,,,,,,,,.,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,.../.,,
The left mainly terrorizes large blue cities where nearly everyone already agrees with them. This mainly just makes for a freak show the rest of the world can gawk at.Wake me up when antifa decides to start fires in red state suburbs with pervasive gun ownership and a hostile police force that’s more inclined to shoot them than protect them
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4664186&forum_id=2#41208154) |
Date: October 28th, 2020 7:24 PM
Author: ,.,.,.,.,.,. .,.,. ,.,.,. ., ,.,., .,,.,.
Dems+virus destroy economy and unemployment goes to 50%, people run out of food... then the shooting starts
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4664186&forum_id=2#41208522) |
Date: October 28th, 2020 7:53 PM
Author: """"""
0% you delusional morons.Totalitarianism is coming and our side will be crushed under a giant boot
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4664186&forum_id=2#41208707) |
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Date: October 28th, 2020 9:38 PM
Author: '"'""'"''"
That's not usually how it works. Totalitarianism came to Russia after a huge civil war, China after a huge civil war, NK, on and on. It isn't that common that one side just wins without a fight.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4664186&forum_id=2#41209353) |
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