Borders tp here - Watch this video by journalist telling Dems the score
| borders | 10/28/20 | | ..................,.....,.,,.,..... | 10/28/20 | | ;..;.;;;.;;.;.;.;;;.;;;.;.;;;....;. | 10/28/20 | | .,,.,,.,.,,,.....,,,.,.,.,...,.,. | 10/28/20 | | Driving back in silence from retirement home | 10/28/20 | | borders | 10/28/20 | | Rudolph | 10/28/20 | | .,.,.,.,.,...,.,,.,,.....,.,..,.,,...,.,.,,...,. | 10/28/20 | | Hegemon | 10/28/20 | | borders | 10/28/20 | | Rudolph | 10/28/20 | | typical lib pundit | 10/28/20 | | ....,...,.,.,..............................,..,. | 10/28/20 | | borders | 10/28/20 | | ,.,.,.,.,.,. .,.,. ,.,.,. ., ,.,., .,,.,. | 10/28/20 | | absolutely devastating for board libs | 10/28/20 | | ..................,.....,.,,.,..... | 10/28/20 | | ,.,.,.,.,.,. .,.,. ,.,.,. ., ,.,., .,,.,. | 10/28/20 | | borders | 10/28/20 | | .,.,.,.,.,...,.,,.,,.....,.,..,.,,...,.,.,,...,. | 10/28/20 | | .,.,.,.,.,...,.,,.,,.....,.,..,.,,...,.,.,,...,. | 10/28/20 | | "'''''"'""'''"'"' | 10/28/20 | | borders | 10/28/20 | | Driving back in silence from retirement home | 10/28/20 | | I'm gay tp | 10/28/20 | | I'm a cuck btw | 10/28/20 | | biglaw associate asking if link is worksafe @ 11pm | 10/28/20 | | ..................,.....,.,,.,..... | 10/28/20 | | ,.,.,.,.,.,. .,.,. ,.,.,. ., ,.,., .,,.,. | 10/28/20 | | ..................,.....,.,,.,..... | 10/28/20 | | Kim Jong Un face carved in a Halloween pumpkin | 10/28/20 | | borders | 10/28/20 | | dont run | 10/28/20 | | Daytona Beach 1986 | 10/28/20 | | .,.,.,.,.,...,.,,.,,.....,.,..,.,,...,.,.,,...,. | 10/28/20 | | gibberish | 10/28/20 | | .,.,.,.,.,...,.,,.,,.....,.,..,.,,...,.,.,,...,. | 10/28/20 | | ;..;.;;;.;;.;.;.;;;.;;;.;.;;;....;. | 10/28/20 | | gibberish | 10/28/20 | | borders | 10/28/20 | | borders | 10/28/20 | | biglaw associate asking if link is worksafe @ 11pm | 10/28/20 | | borders | 10/28/20 | | X^3 - cos(2x-65) + 345x - e^2 | 10/28/20 | | ,.,.,.,.,.,. .,.,. ,.,.,. ., ,.,., .,,.,. | 10/28/20 | | borders | 10/28/20 | | borders | 10/28/20 | | A Jurisprudence is Performed | 10/28/20 | | KamalaSexyFineCleverChocolate | 10/28/20 | | ;;;;;;;::::;;::;;;;::::; | 10/28/20 | | borders | 10/28/20 | | dont run | 10/28/20 | | ;;;;;;;::::;;::;;;;::::; | 10/28/20 |
 Poast new message in this thread
  
Date: October 28th, 2020 11:45 AM
Author: borders
https://twitter.com/jakejakeny/status/1320802361447796736?s=20Cliffs: if you think FL results pouring in don't mean anything yet, then you must be smarter than all the Republican and Democrat operatives crunching numbers in FL right now, the firewall for D+ needed by election day is being breached by the middle of this week, and if you think overperformance in FL doesn't translate to rust belt improvement you're mistaken, it's more likely Trump outperforms in rust belt this year than FL, Dems are finding out by middle of this week that election may be lost... What he's talking about are trackers like this able to give: Democrat: 2879992 (40.89%) 63.93% of 2016 Clinton votes 109.51% of 2016 Democrat EV 2016 total 4/4 voters:1596467 2020 4/4 voters (est):1269533 Remaining 4/4 voters (est):326934 (20.48%) Difference with R: -260945 Republican: 2648829 (37.61%) 57.36% of 2016 Trump votes 104.56% of 2016 Republican EV 2016 total 4/4 voters:1903132 2020 4/4 voters (est):1315253 Remaining 4/4 voters (est):587879 (30.89%) Difference with D: +260945 NPA: 1424085 (20.22%) 110.86% of 2016 NPA EV 2016 total 4/4 voters:572671 2020 4/4 voters (est):388529 Remaining 4/4 voters (est):184142 (32.15%)
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4664448&forum_id=2#41205034) |
Date: October 28th, 2020 11:50 AM
Author: .,,.,,.,.,,,.....,,,.,.,.,...,.,.
That soybean homo doesn’t even have a blue check mark
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4664448&forum_id=2#41205070) |
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Date: October 28th, 2020 11:59 AM
Author: borders
Not updated - as I've said before - PA you're just going to have to wait until ED b/c of voter habits, if WI is looking good PA might not even matter, but I was surprised myself that PA is at 59c on predictit - it was headed down before the riots there even - I think after that latest poll by local paper showing Biden is running 9 points behind Hillary in Philadelphia area (which would mean game over)It's important to understand what he explains in the video which is what I've shown before from some analysis i found - which is over/under performance by party vs the last election performance in FL has perfectly correlated with over/under performance in both MI and PA in every election since well before 2000s I think - this is what Gelman's criticism of nate silver model was about - that it's absurd to think an increase in performance in a significant way by say flipping a state or doing even better in such a crucial state isn't correlated with over-performance in other areas. Rural / working class men, not just whites this time , are going to come out and vote for trump on election day in a way we haven't seen since... I dunno but not in my lifetime...
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4664448&forum_id=2#41205149) |
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Date: October 28th, 2020 12:05 PM
Author: .,.,.,.,.,...,.,,.,,.....,.,..,.,,...,.,.,,...,.
*feeds you cricket*
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4664448&forum_id=2#41205197) |
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Date: October 28th, 2020 12:16 PM
Author: borders
Yeah - not worth responding to b/c you still can't comprehend basics of what that was about, and I've only said in almost every post why it's retarded to compare to 2016 targetsmart numbers or especially 2018 - the early voter pool has massively expanded, and is not a select group of absentee voters or early voters , it looks more like a highly-dem leaning general electorate , and it's not surprising you have similar levels of numeracy to journalists who point out the youth vote is up 180% vs early voting in 2016! without noticing that 30-39 is up 700% in that same state, and that the absolute share of early vote is down 7-10 points vs 2016 final results and the voting pool will only get increasingly conservative from here on.and so if you can't understand what i just said about the youth vote above, and apply this elsewhere - you're just incapable of following any of the discussions here That you can't comprehend this isn't surprising, but your persistence is
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4664448&forum_id=2#41205268) |
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Date: October 28th, 2020 12:23 PM
Author: Rudolph
Yeah, bro, what you are saying doesn't make any sense. You need to relook at the 2016 data I poasted about white college educated voters in those 3 states and how they broke for Trump.You should look at the data and not speak generally. HTFH.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4664448&forum_id=2#41205312) |
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Date: October 28th, 2020 5:08 PM
Author: ....,...,.,.,..............................,..,.
“You see younger voters make up a larger share of the early vote electorate than they did in 2016 just about everywhere,” said Tom Bonier, chief executive at TargetSmart Consulting, which tracks early vote data.https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/523199-new-voters-surge-to-the-polls So young voters make up a larger SHARE of the early voting electorate. Not just absolute numbers. Isn't that contrary to what you've been telling us?
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4664448&forum_id=2#41207579) |
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Date: October 28th, 2020 8:48 PM
Author: borders
No - it's actually a finer point b/c he's technically right, but it's still bad for DemsYoung voters make up a larger share of the *early vote* electorate right now than in 2016, but eg 30-39's increase in voter share is even larger The reason youth vote makes up larger share of the *early vote* electorate than 2016, is b/c 2016 EV was a selective group of early voters, there wasn't this massive nationwide early voting effort last time The most you could say is that while both parties are voting when their leaders have told them to, youth voters have not shifted their voting behavior to vote early with the rest of the dems, and so are 9% of electorate when they were 19% of final share of electorate Since the remaining voter pool will be disproportionately conservative, they need to be over-performing right now, not under (eg females are over-performing and are like 55% of all early voters, maybe less by now). Given Universities will be closed, most young ppl wear masks while walking their dogs outside by themselves, and the messaging from both sides, I don't see a huge wave of youth who are planning to vote with the highly republican pool on ED, but we'll find out soon enough...
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4664448&forum_id=2#41209038)
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Date: October 28th, 2020 8:41 PM
Author: ,.,.,.,.,.,. .,.,. ,.,.,. ., ,.,., .,,.,.
Look I want to believe you man but you have one premise dead wrong:“ which is over/under performance by party vs the last election performance in FL has perfectly correlated with over/under performance in both MI and PA in every election since well before 2000s” YOU CANNOT COMPARE THIS ELECTION EV WITH PAST ELECTION EV. Covid is driving everyone, reptiles included, to the polls early. The percentage of early vs ED voting is going to be different for republicans too. Republicans are voting early which is why dem leads aren’t much. My reptile neighborhood has lines every day because no one wants to vote on ED due to fraudvirus.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4664448&forum_id=2#41208999) |
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Date: October 28th, 2020 8:46 PM
Author: ..................,.....,.,,.,.....
"My reptile neighborhood has lines every day because no one wants to vote on ED due to fraudvirus."This makes no sense. Does a huge line for EV have less chance of poz than a huge line on ED? I
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4664448&forum_id=2#41209030) |
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Date: October 28th, 2020 9:06 PM
Author: ,.,.,.,.,.,. .,.,. ,.,.,. ., ,.,., .,,.,.
On ED the lines would be around the block. EV they are long but not as long because it is spaced across 10+ days
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4664448&forum_id=2#41209166) |
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Date: October 28th, 2020 8:50 PM
Author: borders
That's not a comparison with EV, that's a comparison of final results in a state -https://imgur.com/a/eGXi8HG What I mean is, if Trump runs away w/ FL which is looking like a very high likelihood, then it's worth noting that both MI and PA have perfectly correlated with FL in their margin movements since 1968
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4664448&forum_id=2#41209061) |
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Date: October 28th, 2020 12:00 PM
Author: .,.,.,.,.,...,.,,.,,.....,.,..,.,,...,.,.,,...,.
Trump will take PA
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4664448&forum_id=2#41205154) |
Date: October 28th, 2020 12:00 PM
Author: .,.,.,.,.,...,.,,.,,.....,.,..,.,,...,.,.,,...,.
Rudolph seething
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4664448&forum_id=2#41205155) |
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Date: October 28th, 2020 12:10 PM
Author: borders
Lol - nonsense - I won't claim Trump has WI locked up w/ any kind of certainty - but I think what the election will show, no matter who wins, is how absurd the media's narratives have been, and the results will bring everyone back down to earth wrt these +12 polls, claims of Trump losing seniors, claims of white college educated voters leaving trump, etc - it's all part of a social desirability narrative to attempt to pressure those groups into not voting for Trump by telling them 'everyone like you is thinking X' - based purely on absurdities in polling - and so what the election will show more than anything is that the media narratives have been in fantasyland, and no matter who wins our basic intuitions about polarization, elections being difficult to run away with one way or the other, etc are correctLook - we have a recent example to calibrate this kind of shit against, Obama's victories..... And what does a campaign for a Democrat running +6 that actually believes it's running +6 look like? It looks like Obama campaigning in MO and Iowa in the final week of the campaign..... with Mccain in indiana and palin in iowa... (romney campaign did some retarded shit i don't know wtf that was about) - it does not look like having to almost exclusively attempt to turnout your most high margin base of support , blacks, in tipping point states - Trump is campaigning in many blue areas of the rust belt - Biden is still trying to turn out blacks in philly and doing black radio station interviews in detroit There will be some mix of senate campaigning b/c there are cases like iowa or AZ where the senators are running a few points behind the potus so trump has to try and drag them over finish line with him
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4664448&forum_id=2#41205226) |
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Date: October 28th, 2020 9:07 PM
Author: ,.,.,.,.,.,. .,.,. ,.,.,. ., ,.,., .,,.,.
Link? Site I’m looking at hasn’t updated since this morning
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4664448&forum_id=2#41209175) |
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Date: October 28th, 2020 12:28 PM
Author: .,.,.,.,.,...,.,,.,,.....,.,..,.,,...,.,.,,...,.
Historically speaking, Rs vote on election day. You can gauge turnout by enthusiasm. Trump has the highest amount of R enthusiasm/support of any R president in out life time
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4664448&forum_id=2#41205349) |
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Date: October 28th, 2020 12:31 PM
Author: .,.,.,.,.,...,.,,.,,.....,.,..,.,,...,.,.,,...,.
cr. Voter Registration by Party is indicative of the behavior as a result of the enthusiasm
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4664448&forum_id=2#41205380) |
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Date: October 28th, 2020 9:27 PM
Author: borders
A few points- newly registered voters have an absurdly high propensity to turnout to vote, not surprisingly - There are trackers, like targetsmart, online trackers using similar voter files etc, that can tell not just demographics of voters on voter files, but whether the person who voted is a first time voter, infrequent voter, frequent voter, or supervoter (super is voted in last 4/4 elections, frequent 3/4, ...) Of course we don't know anything for sure until ED - but if there's any guaranteed theme on the right right now, what is it? IMO it's distrust of the media, and distrust of the system more generally. ED is a ritual for many voters, and this especially for the right it's sort of a 'fuck you' against the media, polls, ballot stuffers, politicians who undermined election norms, etc In varying margins - voters have told this story to pollsters on literally every survey this election cycle.... that dems will vote early / vbm, Rs on ED / maybe IPEV
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4664448&forum_id=2#41209287) |
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Date: October 28th, 2020 1:50 PM
Author: borders
Yeah - there are two factors feeding thisThe first is that we know Rs win ED based on last few elections at a minimum - just look at all the articles from 2016 where they're pumping out stories how Trump is screwed in NC / PA / AZ early voting The second component is that we know from polls / surveys - even though Biden +8 , Biden +15 is complete flame - this finding has been incredibly stable throughout polling this year, that Dems by huge margins say they're going to vote before ED / vbm, and that Rs say they'll vote on ED This is b/c voters are following their party's messaging - Trump told his voters that dems were going to be shady w/ mail ballots, and to vote in person (while secretly pushing vbm to some seniors etc who usually do) Dems have been going all in for 7 months on covid hysteria and scaring the shit out of their voters, and it WORKED, they said they're going to vote by mail / early vote in huge disproportionality So this finding has been consistent in polls (but one reason polls are flame is b/c the ratio you see in D:R 'voted already' in these polls doesn't match the actual voted already, and also by intention when do you plan to vote it's over half of dems plan to vote before ED in these polls, Rs are like 60-65 / 40-35 on ED So the disproportionate margins on ED are expected to be even more extreme this year There are also questions from gallup about how worried are you by covid in planning to vote or something like that - 20% or so of Dems say they're not concerned or won't be affected by covid in terms of how they vote, like 60-80% for Rs This is also validated by the tracking stats I posted in OP - where they can see in many of these states that have party registrations that the number of supervoters (voters who voted in 4 out of last 4 elections) remaining for Dems is basically depleted, whereas Rs have large banks of supervoters left - these are basically guaranteed to show up and vote so useful to track So it's: - Each party told their voters to vote at different times - Last few elections we've seen this happen - likely voters have told us this will happen, robustly across surveys - we can see this happening by looking at supervoters
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4664448&forum_id=2#41205955)
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Date: October 28th, 2020 3:11 PM
Author: X^3 - cos(2x-65) + 345x - e^2
What's your projected total in person vote count on election day in Florida? Is 3M high? That would be like a 20% increase over 2016, which seems like a decent guess, but it is of course a complete stab in the dark and it's at least conceivable that ED vote would be down from 2016 when it was about 2.5M given the virus and the age of the FL population and the huge increase in EV/VBM.Polling this week still indicates 50% of respondents saying they will vote in person on election day, but that would mean like 90+% turn out overall, which would be absurd. 6M have already voted and there are still 2M mail in ballots outstanding. Lots of other craziness, like 70% of votes cast are by people over age 50. It just seems like Election Day is a total crapshoot. But it seems silly to me to think that 5M+ would vote ED and the GOP would bank a half million plus vote advantage over Dem on ED given how many votes are already cast unless you had something specifically weird like Dems who cross parties and independents that lean GOP are also more likely to vote on ED. Totally possible that we will see all sorts of weird details when all votes are cast, but whatever the case it just seems like complete guesswork today on top of the noise of selecting the most motivated and also most idle supporters to try to make a prediction based on overall EV turnout. Half of the registered GOP in the state has already voted early and there are still like a million GOP ballots outstanding. Clearly any poll saying 50% of GOP will vote ED is mathematically flawed.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4664448&forum_id=2#41206610) |
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Date: October 28th, 2020 8:44 PM
Author: ,.,.,.,.,.,. .,.,. ,.,.,. ., ,.,., .,,.,.
What's your projected total in person vote count on election day in Florida? Is 3M high? That would be like a 20% increase over 2016, which seems like a decent guess,It will be lower. Everyone is voting early compared to last cycle.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4664448&forum_id=2#41209024) |
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Date: October 28th, 2020 9:21 PM
Author: borders
"Clearly any poll saying 50% of GOP will vote ED is mathematically flawed"That's the entire point All these polls badly fail basic validation against what we saw in early voting. For example - the poll sample is supposed to be representative of the electorate, and within this sample, there's a subsample that said they've already voted ( polls from 1-2 weeks ago, say), and this split has been like 3:1 D:R on a state level. The real D:R of the ACTUAL subsample of the ACTUAL electorate was nowhere near 3:1, so at a minimum this raises serious red flags as to how representative the sample is when the subsamples don't even come close to matching. My point is that we have no reason to believe turnout will increase by anything close to that - first time voters / infrequent voters aren't abnormally high, youth / minorities / marginal voters are down, and they are usually predictive of higher turnout. What reason do we have to expect a huge surge of all these first time voters, youth , blacks etc to vote on ED along with the most disproportionately conservative voting pool? Of course it could happen, but it's worrisome for Dems that these groups didn't vote with the bulk of Democratic voter base in VBM / EV.... The ED split in FL was like 53 / 47 R/D in 2016 (can't remember exactly) - and this year it will be even more extreme, but less volume. It's not hard to verify that voters are following what their parties told them - Rs distrust mail ballots way more, so have started voting in person early up to ED, and will vote on ED even more disproportionately this year, almost everyone on the Dem side crunching the numbers believes this - and are setting similar thresholds It's not a coincidence that Dems were up huge in VBM, and as IPEV started Rs are improving their margins by the day, and you have things like: Remaining 4/4 voters (est):287027 (17.98%) Remaining 4/4 voters (est):529634 (27.83%) Of course ED will be somewhat of a crapshoot - but the story is unfolding in a way exactly how each party expected.... Of course it's possible that Dems would see some huge wave of marginal / low turnout voters on ED, that just seems unlikely - and all of this aligns with the behaviorals I talked about 2 weeks ago w/ what groups were enthusiastic according to gallup internals, blacks and youth enthusiasm was down big time, and you can tell by campaign behavior - what is Biden spending his time doing? trying to drive blacks and youngs to the polls....
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4664448&forum_id=2#41209259)
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Date: October 28th, 2020 9:36 PM
Author: ;;;;;;;::::;;::;;;;::::;
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4664448&forum_id=2#41209342) |
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